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Radially outward-propagating, diurnal pulses in tropical cyclones (TCs) are associated with TC intensity and structural changes. The pulses are observed to feature either cloud-top cooling or warming, so-called cooling pulses (CPs) or warming pulses (WPs), respectively, with CPs posing a greater risk for hazardous weather because they often assume characteristics of tropical squall lines. The current study evaluates the characteristics and origins of simulated CPs using various convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulations of Hurricane Dorian (2019), which featured several CPs and WPs over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. CP evolution is tested against choice of microphysics parameterization, whereby the Thompson and Morrison schemes present distinct mechanisms for CP creation and propagation. Specifically, the Thompson CP is convectively coupled and propagates outward with a rainband within 100–300 km of the storm center. The Morrison CP is restricted to the cirrus canopy and propagates radially outward in the upper-level outflow layer, unassociated with any rainband, within 200–600 km of the storm center. The Thompson simulation better represents the observations of this particular event, but it is speculated that CPs in nature can resemble characteristics from either MP scheme. It is, therefore, necessary to evaluate pulses beyond just brightness temperature (e.g., reflectivity, rain rate), especially within simulations where full fields are available.

Tropical cyclone size and structure are influenced by the time of day. Identifying and predicting such characteristics is critical for evaluating hazardous weather risk of storms close to land. While satellite observations are valuable for recognizing daily fluctuations of tropical cyclone clouds as seen from space, they do not reliably capture what occurs at the surface. To investigate the relationship between upper-level cloud oscillations and rainbands, this study analyzes simulations of a major hurricane along the coast of Florida. The results show that rainbands are not always tied to changes in cloud tops, suggesting multiple pathways toward the daily oscillation of upper-level tropical cyclone clouds.

 

Abstract We utilized high temporal resolution, near-surface observations of sustained winds and gusts from two networks, the primarily airport-based Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) and the New York State Mesonet (NYSM), to evaluate forecasts from the operational High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model, versions 3 and 4. Consistent with past studies, we showed the model has a high degree of skill in reproducing the diurnal variation of network-averaged wind speed of ASOS stations, but also revealed several areas where improvements could be made. Forecasts were found to be underdispersive, deficient in both temporal and spatial variability, with significant errors occurring during local nighttime hours in all regions and in forested environments for all hours of the day. This explained why the model overpredicted the network-averaged wind in the NYSM because much of that network’s stations are in forested areas. A simple gust parameterization was shown not only to have skill in predicting gusts in both networks but also to mitigate systemic biases found in the sustained wind forecasts. Significance Statement Many users depend on forecasts from operational models and need to know their strengths, weaknesses, and limitations. We examined generally high-quality near-surface observations of sustained winds and gusts from the nationwide Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) and the New York State Mesonet (NYSM) and used them to evaluate forecasts from the previous (version 3) and current (version 4) operational High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model for a selected month. Evidence indicated that the wind forecasts are excellent yet imperfect and areas for further improvement remain. In particular, we showed there is a high degree of skill in representing the diurnal variation of sustained wind at ASOS stations but insufficient spatial and temporal forecast variability and overprediction at night everywhere, in forested areas at all times of day, and at NYSM sites in particular, which are more likely to be sited in the forest. Gusts are subgrid even at the fine grid spacing of the HRRR (3 km) and thus must be parameterized. Our simple gust algorithm corrected for some of these systemic biases, resulting in very good predictions of the maximum hourly gust. 

We analyzed meteorological conditions that occurred during the December 2021 Boulder, Colorado, downslope windstorm. This event is of particular interest due to the ignition and spread of the Marshall Fire, which quickly became the most destructive wildfire in Colorado history. Observations indicated a rapid onset of fast winds with gusts as high as 51 m/s that generally remained confined to the east-facing slopes and foothills of the Rockies, similar to previous Boulder windstorms. After about 12 h, the windstorm shifted into a second, less intense phase. Midtropospheric winds above northwestern Colorado weakened prior to the onset of strong surface winds and the event strength started waning as stronger winds moved back into the area. Forecasts from NOAA high-resolution operational models initialized more than a few hours prior to windstorm onset did not simulate the start time, development rate and/or maximum strength of the windstorm correctly, and day-ahead runs even failed to develop strong downslope windstorms at all. Idealized modeling confirmed that predictability was limited by errors on the synoptic scale affecting the midtropospheric wind conditions representing the Boulder windstorm’s inflow environment. Gust forecasts for this event were critically evaluated. 

Abstract Subgrid-scale turbulence in numerical weather prediction models is typically handled by a PBL parameterization. These schemes attempt to represent turbulent mixing processes occurring below the resolvable scale of the model grid in the vertical direction, and they act upon temperature, moisture, and momentum within the boundary layer. This study varies the PBL mixing strength within 4-km WRF simulations of a 26–29 January 2015 snowstorm to assess the sensitivity of baroclinic cyclones to eddy diffusivity intensity. The bulk critical Richardson number for unstable regimes is varied between 0.0 and 0.25 within the YSU PBL scheme as a way of directly altering the depth and magnitude of subgrid-scale turbulent mixing. Results suggest that varying the bulk critical Richardson number is similar to selecting a different PBL parameterization. Differences in boundary layer moisture availability, arising from reduced entrainment of dry, free tropospheric air, lead to variations in the magnitude of latent heat release above the warm frontal region, producing stronger upper-tropospheric downstream ridging in simulations with less PBL mixing. The more amplified flow pattern impedes the northeastward propagation of the surface cyclone and results in a westward shift of precipitation. In addition, trajectory analysis indicates that ascending parcels in the less-mixing simulations condense more water vapor and terminate at a higher potential temperature level than do ascending parcels in the more-mixing simulations, suggesting stronger latent heat release when PBL mixing is reduced. These results suggest that spread within ensemble forecast systems may be improved by perturbing PBL mixing parameters that are not well constrained. 

While the frequency and structure of Atlantic basin tropical cyclone diurnal cooling and warming pulses have recently been explored, how often diurnal pulses are associated with deep convection was left unanswered. Here, storm-relative, GridSat-B1, 6-h IR brightness temperature difference fields were supplemented with World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) data to answer that question. Electrically active, long-lived cooling and warming pulses were defined objectively by determining critical thresholds for the lightning flash density, areal coverage, and longevity within each pulse. Pulses with lightning occurred 61% of the time, with persistently electrically active pulses (≥9 h, ACT) occurring on 38% of pulse days and quasi–electrically active pulses (3–6 h, QUASI) occurring on 23% of pulse days. Electrically inactive pulses (<3 h, INACT) occurred 39% of the time. ACT pulse days had more pulses located right-of-shear, the preferred quadrant for outer-rainband lightning activity, and were associated with more favorable environmental conditions than INACT pulse days. Cooling pulses were more likely to occur in lower-shear environments while warming pulses were more likely to occur in high-shear environments. Finally, while the propagation speeds of ACT and INACT cooling pulses and ACT warming pulses did lend support to the recent gravity wave and tropical squall-line explanations of diurnal pulses, the INACT warming pulses did not and should be studied further. 

Recent research has found that diurnal pulses are ubiquitous features of tropical cyclones. To gain further insight into the characteristics of these pulses, a case study of an electrically active (ACT) cooling pulse and an off-the-clock ACT cooling pulse that occurred in Hurricane Harvey (2017) was conducted. Using GridSat-B1 IR brightness temperatures, World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) lightning data, the 85–91-GHz channels on microwave satellite imagers, and Level-II Doppler radar reflectivity data from WSR-88D stations (i.e., NEXRAD), these pulses were found to share many similar characteristics: both propagated outward on the right-of-shear side of Harvey and were associated with elevated cloud ice content and high reflectivity. Additionally, using HRRR model output, both pulses were found to be associated with 1) column-deep total condensate, 2) a surface cold pool, 3) an overturning circulation, and 4) an enhanced low-level jet. These characteristics are similar to those found in tropical squall lines, supporting the tropical squall-line interpretation of diurnal pulses put forth in recent studies. A hypothesis for ACT pulse initiation was then introduced, tested, and confirmed: inner rainbands that propagated outward into a more favorable environment for deep convection reinvigorated into ACT pulses that had tropical squall-line characteristics.

 

Storm-centered IR brightness temperature imagery was used to create 6-h IR brightness temperature difference fields for all Atlantic basin tropical cyclones from 1982 to 2017. Pulses of colder cloud tops were defined objectively by determining critical thresholds for the magnitude of the IR differences, areal coverage of cold-cloud tops, and longevity. Long-lived cooling pulses (≥9 h) were present on 45% of days overall, occurring on 80% of major hurricane days, 64% of minor hurricane days, 46% of tropical storm days, and 24% of tropical depression days. These cooling pulses propagated outward between 8 and 14 m s⁻¹. Short-lived cooling pulses (3–6 h) were found 26.4% of the time. Some days without cooling pulses had events of the opposite sign, which were labeled warming pulses. Long-lived warming pulses occurred 8.5% of the time and propagated outward at the same speed as their cooling pulse counterparts. Only 12.2% of days had no pulses that met the criteria, indicating that pulsing is nearly ubiquitous in tropical cyclones. The environment prior to outward propagation of cooling pulses differed from warming pulse and no pulse days by having more favorable conditions between 0000 and 0300 LT for enhanced inner-core convection: higher SST and ocean heat content, more moisture throughout the troposphere, and stronger low-level vorticity and upper-level divergence.